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Story: Population change

Projected New Zealand population to 2061 by age and sex

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The ageing population is the most significant demographic trend to play out in the 21st century. Current trends suggest the older population (65 years and above) will overtake the child population (0–14 years) by the 2020s. The young (15–39) and midlife (40–64) populations will remain the largest groups, but will decline proportionally as the older population increases. The increase in the child population will be insignificant.

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Te Ara – The Encyclopedia of New Zealand

Source: Statistics New Zealand : ‘National ethnic population projections, by age and sex (2013 base)-2038'

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How to cite this page

Ian Pool and Natalie Jackson, Population change – Pākehā age structure and dependency, Te Ara – the Encyclopedia of New Zealand, https://teara.govt.nz/en/graph/28734/projected-new-zealand-population-to-2061-by-age-and-sex (accessed 21 June 2026).

Story by Ian Pool and Natalie Jackson, published 21 April 2011, reviewed and revised 23 August 2018 with assistance from Natalie Jackson.