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Story: Climate change

New Zealand climate projections 2090s

Climate variable Type of change Regional/seasonal variations
Temperatures

Progressive increase of mean temperatures from 0.7–3.0°C.

Fewer cold temperatures and frosts.

Increase in high temperate episodes.

 More warming in the east and north, and particularly at high elevations.
Rainfall

Substantial variation in mean rainfall around the country.

Heavier and/or more frequent extreme rainfalls in winter, which may increase flooding.

Drought severity and frequency projected to increase in most areas of the country.

In winter and spring an increase in rainfall for the west of both the North and South Islands. Largest increases likely in areas such as the West Coast.

More dry days throughout North Island, and in inland South Island.
Wind and storms

Increase in the mean westerly windflow across New Zealand.

Increase in possible severe wind risk.

 Daily extreme winds increase in eastern regions, especially Marlborough and Canterbury.
Sea level and waves 9-88 cm rise (New Zealand average). Increased frequency of heavy swells in the regions exposed to prevailing westerlies.
Snow and glaciers

Decrease of snow cover, and rise of snowlines.

Reduction in ice volume and glacier length.

 Large decreases in snow in high altitude and southern regions of the South Island.

This table shows the major predicted changes in New Zealand’s climate by the 2090s. It includes changes in the average climate and in the occurrence of some phenomena. The predictions for the temperature rise are based on projections derived from seven weather stations distributed around the country, all of which have been collecting weather data for more than a century.

Using this item

Te Ara – The Encyclopedia of New Zealand

Source: Ministry for the Environment, Climate Change Projections for New Zealand, 2018

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How to cite this page

Brett Mullan, Petra Pearce, Stephen Stuart, Ben Liley and Stacy Mohan, Climate change – Consequences for New Zealand, Te Ara – the Encyclopedia of New Zealand, https://teara.govt.nz/en/table/7557/new-zealand-climate-projections-2090s (accessed 4 June 2026).

Story by Brett Mullan, Petra Pearce, Stephen Stuart, Ben Liley and Stacy Mohan, published 2 March 2009, updated 20 July 2020.